Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AMKR
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($17.66) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$55.27 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +43.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.4%/yr | 12.5% | $10.89 |
| Base case | 6.4%/yr | 11.5% | $13.77 |
| Optimistic | 9.4%/yr | 10.5% | $17.66 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $13.24 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$55.27
Market-Implied Growth
+43.4%/yr
vs -2.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$13.77
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMKR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $268.0M · 0.25B shares · net debt $138.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$13.77
-75.1% vs $55.27
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $55.27; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $16.13 | $16.99 | $17.98 | $19.12 | $20.44 |
| 10.5% | $14.22 | $14.87 | $15.61 | $16.44 | $17.40 |
| 11.5% | $12.69 | $13.20 | $13.77 | $14.40 | $15.11 |
| 12.5% | $11.44 | $11.85 | $12.30 | $12.79 | $13.34 |
| 13.5% | $10.40 | $10.74 | $11.10 | $11.49 | $11.92 |
