Why we don't show a single “fair value” for BESIY
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($42.04) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.6%/yr | 11.7% | $24.98 |
| Base case | 5.6%/yr | 10.7% | $32.15 |
| Optimistic | 8.6%/yr | 9.7% | $42.04 |
Current Price
$259.00
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$32.15
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BESIY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $191.2M · 0.08B shares · net debt $161.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$32.15
-87.6% vs $259.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $259.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $38.27 | $40.65 | $43.42 | $46.66 | $50.52 |
| 9.7% | $33.24 | $35.00 | $37.00 | $39.29 | $41.96 |
| 10.7% | $29.30 | $30.64 | $32.15 | $33.85 | $35.78 |
| 11.7% | $26.14 | $27.19 | $28.36 | $29.65 | $31.11 |
| 12.7% | $23.55 | $24.39 | $25.31 | $26.33 | $27.46 |
