TGM's two-stage DCF values Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) between $152.98 and $270.69 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $203.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$163.96 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.1% | $152.98 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.1% | $203.74 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.1% | $270.69 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 31, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $245.96 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$163.96
Market-Implied Growth
+12.5%/yr
vs +25.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$152.98 – $270.69
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PAYC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $312.4M · 0.05B shares · net cash $279.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$203.74
+24.3% vs $163.96
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $163.96; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $259 | $287 | $322 | $369 | $434 |
| 7.1% | $211 | $229 | $250 | $277 | $311 |
| 8.1% | $177 | $190 | $204 | $221 | $241 |
| 9.1% | $153 | $162 | $172 | $183 | $197 |
| 10.1% | $134 | $141 | $148 | $156 | $166 |