TGM's two-stage DCF values Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) between $185.25 and $327.79 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $246.72. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$222.85 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.1% | $185.25 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.1% | $246.72 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.1% | $327.79 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $226.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$222.85
Market-Implied Growth
+15.4%/yr
vs +18.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$185.25 – $327.79
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PAYC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $312.4M · 0.05B shares · net cash $279.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$246.72
+10.7% vs $222.85
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $222.85; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $314 | $347 | $390 | $447 | $525 |
| 7.1% | $255 | $277 | $303 | $335 | $376 |
| 8.1% | $215 | $230 | $247 | $267 | $292 |
| 9.1% | $185 | $196 | $208 | $222 | $238 |
| 10.1% | $162 | $170 | $179 | $189 | $201 |
