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Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC)
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Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) DCF Valuation

Price is BELOW the estimated range
$152.98
$270.69
Model scenario range
$134.69
Today's price

TGM's two-stage DCF values Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC) between $152.98 and $270.69 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $203.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.1%) reflects its beta.

What would today's price require?

Growth the price assumes+7.5%/yr
Actual FCF growth, last 5 years+25.7%/yr

$134.69 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.

ScenarioFCF growth (fading to 2.5%)DiscountValue / share
Conservative15.0%/yr9.1%$152.98
Base case18.0%/yr8.1%$203.74
Optimistic20.0%/yr7.1%$270.69
Analyst DCF (FMP)independent reference — different model$261.30

Current Price

$134.69

Market-Implied Growth

+7.5%/yr

vs +25.7% 5Y actual

Model Scenario Range

$152.98 – $270.69

model output — not a price target

PAYC DCF Fair Value Calculator

Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PAYC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.

18%/yr
Historical FCF CAGR: 3Y 20.8% · 5Y 25.7% · 10Y 28.0%
8.1%
2.5%
10yr

Base inputs: FCF $312.4M · 0.05B shares · net cash $279.7M

Estimated Fair Value

$352.42

+161.7% vs $134.69

Current price$134.69
Analyst DCF (FMP)$261.30

Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth

How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $134.69; red = below. Your current case is outlined.

WACC ↓ / Terminal →1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
6.1%$478$525$585$663$772
7.1%$380$408$443$486$540
8.1%$312$331$352$378$410
9.1%$263$276$290$307$327
10.1%$226$235$245$257$270

About Paycom Software, Inc.

Paycom Software, Inc., established in 1998 and headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, provides a comprehensive, cloud-based human capital management (HCM) platform. This software-as-a-service (SaaS) solution is specifically tailored for small to mid-sized businesses across the United States. It equips organizations with the essential functionality and analytical insights needed to oversee the complete employee journey, from the initial hiring process through to retirement. The robust HCM suite encompasses a wide array of applications across several critical HR domains. For talent acquisition and onboarding, it offers tools such as applicant tracking, candidate management, background checks, seamless onboarding processes, E-Verify compliance, and tax credit services. Time and labor management capabilities include precise time and attendance tracking, flexible scheduling with exchange options, efficient time-off request management, labor allocation, detailed reporting (including push reports), and advanced location-based features like geofencing, geotracking, and their proprietary Microfence Bluetooth technology. Payroll processing is streamlined through applications for improved employee transaction interfaces, comprehensive payroll and tax administration, direct payment options (Paycom Pay), expense management, mileage tracking (with fixed and variable rates), garnishment management, and GL concierge services. Talent development and performance management are supported by employee self-service portals, compensation budgeting, performance review systems, position management, Paycom learning modules, content subscriptions, and "my analytics" for predictive employment reporting. Furthermore, the platform integrates various other crucial functions. These include "Manager On-the-Go" for supervisors to approve time-off and expenses remotely, "Ask Here" for direct employee-to-HR communication, direct data exchange capabilities, and tools for document management and checklists. It also addresses compliance and benefits administration with features for government regulations, benefits enrollment (including carrier integration), COBRA administration, personnel action and performance discussion forms, surveys, and Affordable Care Act applications. A notable offering is "Clue," which provides a secure system for collecting, tracking, and managing employee vaccination and testing data.

Oklahoma City, OK
5,770 employees
Technology / Software - Application
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Application
CEO
Chad R. Richison