TGM's two-stage DCF values Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) between $202.78 and $339.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $264.36. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$172.64 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.4% | $202.78 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.4% | $264.36 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.4% | $339.30 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $251.98 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$172.64
Market-Implied Growth
+7.4%/yr
vs +31.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$202.78 – $339.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BKNG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.4B · 0.77B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$264.36
+53.1% vs $172.64
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $172.64; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $325 | $351 | $383 | $421 | $470 |
| 8.4% | $274 | $292 | $313 | $339 | $369 |
| 9.4% | $236 | $249 | $264 | $282 | $302 |
| 10.4% | $207 | $217 | $228 | $241 | $255 |
| 11.4% | $183 | $191 | $200 | $209 | $220 |
