TGM's two-stage DCF values Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) between $200.03 and $333.15 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $260.24. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$184.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.5% | $200.03 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.5% | $260.24 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.5% | $333.15 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $255.71 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$184.74
Market-Implied Growth
+9.4%/yr
vs +39.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$200.03 – $333.15
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for BKNG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.4B · 0.77B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$260.24
+40.9% vs $184.74
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $184.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $319 | $344 | $374 | $411 | $457 |
| 8.5% | $269 | $287 | $308 | $332 | $361 |
| 9.5% | $233 | $245 | $260 | $277 | $297 |
| 10.5% | $204 | $214 | $225 | $237 | $251 |
| 11.5% | $181 | $189 | $197 | $207 | $217 |
