Alcoa Corporation (AA) DCF Valuation
Two independent models estimate Alcoa Corporation's fair value between $4.80 (conservative case) and $16.08 (analyst consensus).
What would today's price require?
$65.55 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.3% a year for the next decade — faster than the company has actually grown.
Current Price
$65.55
Fair-Value Range
$4.80 – $16.08
Market-Implied Growth
+35.3%/yr
vs +13.4% 5Y actual
AA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $127.8M · 0.27B shares · net debt $796.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$4.80
-92.7% vs $65.55
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $65.55; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $6.68 | $7.18 | $7.76 | $8.46 | $9.32 |
| 9.0% | $5.33 | $5.66 | $6.05 | $6.51 | $7.04 |
| 10.0% | $4.29 | $4.53 | $4.80 | $5.11 | $5.47 |
| 11.0% | $3.48 | $3.65 | $3.85 | $4.07 | $4.32 |
| 12.0% | $2.82 | $2.95 | $3.10 | $3.26 | $3.44 |
About Alcoa Corporation
Alcoa Corporation stands as a global industrial leader, primarily focused on the production and sale of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Its extensive operations span multiple continents, including North America (United States, Canada), Europe (Spain, Iceland, Norway), South America (Brazil), and Australia, along with other international markets. The company's activities are strategically divided into three principal segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. Alcoa initiates its process with bauxite mining. This raw material is then refined into alumina, which is subsequently sold to customers for conversion into various industrial chemical products. Additionally, the company is involved in aluminum smelting and casting, supplying primary aluminum in forms like alloy or value-added ingots. These aluminum products cater to a diverse range of industries, including transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire manufacturing, and other industrial applications. Beyond its core metals business, Alcoa also operates hydroelectric power generation facilities. These plants generate and sell electricity into the wholesale market, serving a wide array of clients, from traders and large industrial consumers to distribution companies and other power generators. Founded in 1888, the company is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. It officially adopted the name Alcoa Corporation in October 2016, prior to which it was known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Aluminum
- CEO
- William F. Oplinger