Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($8.65) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$51.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +54.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.1%/yr | 12.5% | $4.33 |
| Base case | 5.1%/yr | 11.5% | $6.17 |
| Optimistic | 8.1%/yr | 10.5% | $8.65 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $15.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$51.74
Market-Implied Growth
+54.4%/yr
vs +5.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$6.17
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $192.0M · 0.26B shares · net debt $796.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.17
-88.1% vs $51.74
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $51.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $7.66 | $8.21 | $8.84 | $9.56 | $10.40 |
| 10.5% | $6.45 | $6.87 | $7.33 | $7.86 | $8.47 |
| 11.5% | $5.48 | $5.80 | $6.17 | $6.57 | $7.02 |
| 12.5% | $4.69 | $4.95 | $5.23 | $5.54 | $5.89 |
| 13.5% | $4.03 | $4.24 | $4.47 | $4.72 | $4.99 |
