Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GME
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($7.45) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$21.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +57.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $6.50 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $6.84 |
| Optimistic |
| 5.0%/yr |
| 10.5% |
| $7.45 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $4.05 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$21.17
Market-Implied Growth
+57.0%/yr
vs -6.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$6.84
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GME (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $91.0M · 0.45B shares · net cash $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$6.84
-67.7% vs $21.17
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $21.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $7.20 | $7.33 | $7.48 | $7.66 | $7.86 |
| 10.5% | $6.91 | $7.01 | $7.12 | $7.25 | $7.39 |
| 11.5% | $6.67 | $6.75 | $6.84 | $6.94 | $7.04 |
| 12.5% | $6.48 | $6.54 | $6.61 | $6.69 | $6.77 |
| 13.5% | $6.32 | $6.37 | $6.43 | $6.49 | $6.56 |
