Why we don't show a single “fair value” for FICO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($468.90) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$1,373.08 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +44.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.6%/yr | 11.5% | $234.31 |
| Base case | 12.6%/yr | 10.5% | $332.58 |
| Optimistic | 15.6%/yr | 9.5% | $468.90 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $504.19 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1,373.08
Market-Implied Growth
+44.7%/yr
vs +14.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$332.58
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FICO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $555.4M · 0.02B shares · net debt $2.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$332.58
-75.8% vs $1373.08
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1373.08; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $420 | $455 | $496 | $543 | $600 |
| 9.5% | $348 | $373 | $402 | $436 | $475 |
| 10.5% | $292 | $311 | $333 | $357 | $385 |
| 11.5% | $247 | $262 | $279 | $297 | $318 |
| 12.5% | $210 | $222 | $235 | $250 | $266 |
