Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CARR
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($17.72) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$70.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.7% | $6.47 |
| Base case | 2.8%/yr | 10.7% | $10.88 |
| Optimistic | 5.8%/yr | 9.7% | $17.72 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $41.93 | |
Current Price
$70.75
Market-Implied Growth
+35.9%/yr
vs +1.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$10.88
model output — not a price target
CARR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CARR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.83B shares · net debt $10.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$11.13
-84.3% vs $70.75
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $70.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $16.30 | $17.51 | $18.92 | $20.57 | $22.55 |
| 9.7% | $12.66 | $13.51 | $14.48 | $15.60 | $16.89 |
| 10.7% | $9.81 | $10.43 | $11.13 | $11.91 | $12.81 |
| 11.7% | $7.53 | $7.99 | $8.50 | $9.07 | $9.72 |
| 12.7% | $5.65 | $6.01 | $6.39 | $6.82 | $7.29 |
About Carrier Global Corporation
Carrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Its operations are structured across three primary business segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment is dedicated to supplying products, controls, services, and complete solutions tailored to the heating, cooling, and ventilation requirements of both residential and commercial clients. Offerings in this area include air conditioning units, heating systems, various control mechanisms, aftermarket components, as well as post-installation repair, maintenance services, and building automation capabilities. The Refrigeration segment focuses on providing transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services. This includes digital solutions for diverse applications such as trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal transport, food retail, and warehouse cooling. Additionally, it offers commercial refrigeration solutions like display cabinets, freezers, integrated systems, and their corresponding controls. The Fire & Security segment delivers a comprehensive suite of technologies for residential, commercial, and industrial environments. This encompasses detection systems for fire, flame, gas, smoke, and carbon monoxide; portable fire extinguishers; advanced fire suppression systems; intruder alarms; access control systems; video management systems; and electronic controls. Its service portfolio further extends to auditing, design, installation, system integration, ongoing maintenance, repair, and monitoring services. The company markets its extensive product range under numerous brands, including Autronica, Det-Tronics, Edwards, Fireye, GST, Kidde, LenelS2, Marioff, Onity, Supra, Carrier, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, Riello, Carrier Commercial Refrigeration, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech. Established in 2019, Carrier Global Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial - Machinery
- CEO
- David L. Gitlin