Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CARR
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($19.11) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$64.01 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.6% | $6.73 |
| Base case | 3.4%/yr | 10.6% | $11.88 |
| Optimistic | 6.4%/yr | 9.6% | $19.11 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $43.23 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$64.01
Market-Implied Growth
+33.0%/yr
vs +4.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$11.88
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CARR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.82B shares · net debt $10.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$11.88
-81.4% vs $64.01
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $64.01; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $16.32 | $18.06 | $20.08 | $22.46 | $25.30 |
| 9.6% | $12.66 | $13.94 | $15.40 | $17.08 | $19.03 |
| 10.6% | $9.81 | $10.79 | $11.88 | $13.12 | $14.53 |
| 11.6% | $7.52 | $8.29 | $9.13 | $10.08 | $11.13 |
| 12.6% | $5.65 | $6.26 | $6.93 | $7.67 | $8.48 |
