Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CARR
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($19.58) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$55.26 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.5% | $6.95 |
| Base case | 3.4%/yr | 10.5% | $12.19 |
| Optimistic | 6.4%/yr | 9.5% | $19.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $40.84 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$55.26
Market-Implied Growth
+29.3%/yr
vs +4.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$12.19
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CARR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.82B shares · net debt $10.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$12.19
-77.9% vs $55.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $55.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $16.75 | $18.54 | $20.64 | $23.11 | $26.07 |
| 9.5% | $12.99 | $14.31 | $15.81 | $17.54 | $19.56 |
| 10.5% | $10.07 | $11.07 | $12.19 | $13.47 | $14.92 |
| 11.5% | $7.73 | $8.51 | $9.38 | $10.35 | $11.43 |
| 12.5% | $5.82 | $6.45 | $7.13 | $7.89 | $8.72 |
