TGM's two-stage DCF values The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) between $73.34 and $140.13 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $99.04. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$154.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.0%/yr | 8.5% | $73.34 |
| Base case | 7.0%/yr | 7.5% | $99.04 |
| Optimistic | 10.0%/yr | 6.5% | $140.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $95.53 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$154.22
Market-Implied Growth
+18.0%/yr
vs +3.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$73.34 – $140.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TJX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.3B · 1.10B shares · net cash $3.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$99.04
-35.8% vs $154.22
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $154.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $128 | $144 | $164 | $194 | $237 |
| 6.5% | $102 | $112 | $124 | $139 | $159 |
| 7.5% | $85.43 | $91.62 | $99.04 | $108 | $119 |
| 8.5% | $73.32 | $77.66 | $82.71 | $88.68 | $95.83 |
| 9.5% | $64.25 | $67.43 | $71.06 | $75.25 | $80.12 |
