The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)'s fair value in a range of $62.69 – $99.33 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $164.87 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $164.87, the market is pricing in roughly +18.6%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -4.0%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$164.87
Fair-Value Range
$62.69 – $99.33
Market-Implied Growth
+18.6%/yr
vs -4.0% 5Y actual
TJX DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $4.0B · 1.10B shares · net cash $3.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$62.69
-62.0% vs $164.87
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $164.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $77.17 | $80.97 | $85.46 | $90.85 | $97.44 |
| 9.0% | $66.71 | $69.31 | $72.31 | $75.81 | $79.94 |
| 10.0% | $58.75 | $60.60 | $62.69 | $65.08 | $67.85 |
| 11.0% | $52.49 | $53.84 | $55.36 | $57.06 | $58.99 |
| 12.0% | $47.44 | $48.46 | $49.58 | $50.83 | $52.23 |
About The TJX Companies, Inc.
The TJX Companies, Inc., alongside its various associated businesses, functions as a major discount retailer focusing on clothing and household decor. Its operations are organized into four primary divisions: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. The enterprise markets an extensive selection of goods, including clothing for all family members (such as shoes and complementary items); a broad array of home furnishings and accessories (ranging from essential household goods, furniture, floor coverings, and lighting fixtures to gift items, soft textiles, decorative pieces, dining wares, and kitchen utensils), alongside growing departments for pet supplies, children's products, and gourmet foodstuffs. Jewelry, additional accessories, and various general merchandise are also available. By the close of February 23, 2022, TJX maintained a considerable retail network across several continents. In the United States, this footprint included 1,284 T.J. Maxx, 1,148 Marshalls, 850 HomeGoods, 59 Sierra, and 39 Homesense physical stores, complemented by online portals like tjmaxx.com, marshalls.com, and sierra.com. Its Canadian presence featured 293 Winners, 147 HomeSense, and 106 Marshalls outlets. European consumers could visit 618 T.K. Maxx and 77 Homesense locations, with an e-commerce option at tkmaxx.com. Furthermore, Australia hosted 68 T.K. Maxx establishments. Established in 1962, the firm's corporate headquarters are located in Framingham, Massachusetts.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel - Retail
- CEO
- Ernie L. Herrman