TGM's two-stage DCF values The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) between $71.28 and $136.07 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $96.21. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$128.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.3%/yr | 8.5% | $71.28 |
| Base case | 6.3%/yr | 7.5% | $96.21 |
| Optimistic | 9.3%/yr | 6.5% | $136.07 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $97.24 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$128.91
Market-Implied Growth
+13.5%/yr
vs +5.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$71.28 – $136.07
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TJX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.3B · 1.10B shares · net cash $3.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$96.21
-25.4% vs $128.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $128.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $124 | $139 | $159 | $188 | $230 |
| 6.5% | $99.47 | $109 | $120 | $135 | $154 |
| 7.5% | $83.04 | $89.03 | $96.21 | $105 | $116 |
| 8.5% | $71.32 | $75.52 | $80.41 | $86.19 | $93.11 |
| 9.5% | $62.55 | $65.63 | $69.14 | $73.19 | $77.91 |
