Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) between $102.53 and $178.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $134.82. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$249.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +30.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.2%/yr | 12.5% | $102.53 |
| Base case | 16.2%/yr | 11.5% | $134.82 |
| Optimistic | 19.2%/yr | 10.5% | $178.47 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $99.34 | |
Current Price
$249.91
Market-Implied Growth
+30.9%/yr
vs +19.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$102.53 – $178.47
model output — not a price target
STLD DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for STLD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.14B shares · net debt $3.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$220.73
-11.7% vs $249.91
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $249.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $280 | $293 | $309 | $327 | $347 |
| 10.5% | $238 | $248 | $259 | $271 | $286 |
| 11.5% | $205 | $213 | $221 | $230 | $240 |
| 12.5% | $179 | $184 | $191 | $197 | $205 |
| 13.5% | $157 | $162 | $166 | $171 | $177 |
About Steel Dynamics, Inc.
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions. The Steel Operations segment is responsible for producing a broad range of steel products, including hot, cold, and coated rolled steel, various structural shapes like beams, channels, and angles, flat and reinforcing bars, and a diverse selection of rail and engineered steel bar products. This segment also provides specialized processing services for both bar products (such as turning, polishing, and heat treating) and specialty items (including cutting, welding, and galvanizing). Its offerings cater to numerous industries, such as construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agricultural equipment, and pipe and tube production. Sales are channeled directly to end-users, steel fabricators, and service centers. The Metals Recycling Operations division focuses on acquiring, processing, and reselling ferrous (e.g., heavy melting steel, shredded scrap, cast iron) and nonferrous (e.g., aluminum, copper, stainless steel) scrap metals, transforming them into reusable materials. This division further offers supplementary services including transportation logistics, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment manufactures crucial components for commercial building construction, such as steel joists, girders, trusses, and steel deck products. Established in 1993 and headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana, the company also engages in exporting its products internationally.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Steel
- CEO
- Mark D. Millett