TGM's two-stage DCF values Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) between $75.38 and $134.48 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $100.51. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$234.34 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.7%/yr | 12.5% | $75.38 |
| Base case | 9.7%/yr | 11.5% | $100.51 |
| Optimistic | 12.7%/yr | 10.5% | $134.48 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $93.67 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$234.34
Market-Implied Growth
+29.2%/yr
vs +9.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$75.38 – $134.48
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for STLD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.14B shares · net debt $3.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$100.51
-57.1% vs $234.34
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $234.34; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $121 | $129 | $138 | $148 | $160 |
| 10.5% | $104 | $110 | $117 | $124 | $133 |
| 11.5% | $90.92 | $95.47 | $101 | $106 | $112 |
| 12.5% | $79.86 | $83.48 | $87.45 | $91.84 | $96.70 |
| 13.5% | $70.66 | $73.60 | $76.80 | $80.30 | $84.13 |
