TGM's two-stage DCF values The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) between $47.99 and $140.58 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $79.32. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$124.66 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $47.99 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $79.32 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $140.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $90.78 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$124.66
Market-Implied Growth
+8.4%/yr
vs -1.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$47.99 – $140.58
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SJM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $766.8M · 0.11B shares · net debt $6.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$79.32
-36.4% vs $124.66
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $124.66; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $122 | $144 | $175 | $218 | $282 |
| 6.5% | $84.24 | $98.01 | $115 | $137 | $167 |
| 7.5% | $59.37 | $68.45 | $79.32 | $92.60 | $109 |
| 8.5% | $41.61 | $47.98 | $55.39 | $64.14 | $74.63 |
| 9.5% | $28.29 | $32.97 | $38.30 | $44.44 | $51.59 |
