Shopify Inc. (SHOP) DCF Valuation
Two independent models estimate Shopify Inc.'s fair value between $14.84 (conservative case) and $19.84 (analyst consensus).
What would today's price require?
$108.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.5% a year for the next decade — faster than the company has actually grown.
Current Price
$108.20
Fair-Value Range
$14.84 – $19.84
Market-Implied Growth
+33.5%/yr
vs +28.2% 5Y actual
SHOP DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 1.30B shares · net cash $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$14.84
-86.3% vs $108.20
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $108.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $18.15 | $19.02 | $20.05 | $21.28 | $22.79 |
| 9.0% | $15.76 | $16.35 | $17.04 | $17.84 | $18.79 |
| 10.0% | $13.93 | $14.36 | $14.84 | $15.38 | $16.02 |
| 11.0% | $12.50 | $12.81 | $13.16 | $13.55 | $13.99 |
| 12.0% | $11.35 | $11.58 | $11.84 | $12.12 | $12.44 |
About Shopify Inc.
Shopify Inc. functions as a premier commerce technology company, providing an extensive platform and associated services to empower businesses worldwide. Its reach extends across Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and Latin America. The company's robust platform equips merchants to effectively display, organize, market, and sell their merchandise through a multitude of sales avenues. These include digital storefronts accessible via web and mobile, traditional brick-and-mortar stores, temporary pop-up locations, integrated social media channels, proprietary mobile applications, embeddable "buy buttons," and established online marketplaces. Beyond sales, the platform streamlines crucial business operations such as product and inventory management, order and payment processing, fulfillment and shipping logistics, attracting new customers and fostering client relationships, product sourcing, analytical reporting, financial administration encompassing cash, payments, and transactions, and facilitating access to working capital. Additionally, Shopify offers supplementary services like the sale of custom website themes and applications, alongside domain name registration. Its merchant-focused solutions also cover payment acceptance, efficient shipping and order fulfillment, and aid in securing necessary operating funds. Founded in 2004 under the initial name Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc., the company officially rebranded to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Its global headquarters are located in Ottawa, Canada.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- CEO
- Tobias Lutke