Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SHOP
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($25.74) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $17.10 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $21.18 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $25.74 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $19.28 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$128.79
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$21.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SHOP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 1.30B shares · net cash $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$21.18
-83.6% vs $128.79
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $128.79; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $24.71 | $26.01 | $27.49 | $29.19 | $31.18 |
| 10.5% | $21.85 | $22.83 | $23.93 | $25.18 | $26.61 |
| 11.5% | $19.56 | $20.33 | $21.18 | $22.12 | $23.19 |
| 12.5% | $17.71 | $18.31 | $18.98 | $19.72 | $20.54 |
| 13.5% | $16.17 | $16.66 | $17.20 | $17.78 | $18.43 |
