RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for RBC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($180.84) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$648.89 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +57.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.1% | $106.53 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.1% | $141.36 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.1% | $180.84 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $153.58 | |
Current Price
$648.89
Market-Implied Growth
+57.4%/yr
vs +19.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$141.36
model output — not a price target
RBC DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RBC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $242.7M · 0.03B shares · net debt $818.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$249.58
-61.5% vs $648.89
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $648.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $320 | $337 | $356 | $379 | $406 |
| 10.1% | $270 | $282 | $296 | $311 | $329 |
| 11.1% | $231 | $240 | $250 | $261 | $273 |
| 12.1% | $200 | $206 | $214 | $222 | $231 |
| 13.1% | $174 | $179 | $185 | $191 | $198 |
About RBC Bearings Incorporated
RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) is a global enterprise specializing in the design, production, and distribution of precisely engineered bearings and a wide array of related mechanical components. The company strategically operates through two core segments: Aerospace/Defense and Industrial, catering to both domestic and international clients. Its diverse product portfolio includes: Plain bearings: Available in self-lubricating or metal-on-metal designs, featuring rod end, spherical plain, and journal bearings. Roller bearings: These anti-friction devices, such as tapered roller, needle roller, needle bearing track rollers, and cam followers, are vital for various industrial uses and military aircraft platforms. Ball bearings: This category encompasses high-precision aerospace, airframe control, thin section, and industrial ball bearings, all engineered with high-precision ball elements to minimize friction in demanding, high-speed applications. Beyond its primary bearing offerings, RBC also provides: Mounted bearing products: Including complete mounted ball, roller, and plain bearing units. Enclosed gearing systems: A comprehensive range featuring Quantis gearmotors, torque arm units, Tigear, MagnaGear & Maxum lines, and controlled start transmissions. Power transmission components: Such as mechanical drive elements, couplings, and conveyor parts. Engineered hydraulics and valves: Specifically developed for aircraft and submarine systems, alongside comprehensive aftermarket services for the aerospace and defense sectors. Fasteners. Precision mechanical components: Applied across diverse general industrial settings. Machine tool collets: Essential for securing circular or rod-shaped workpieces during machining. RBC reaches an extensive customer base across numerous industries, including automotive, tool holding, agricultural and semiconductor machinery, commercial and defense aerospace, ground defense, construction and mining, oil and natural resource extraction, heavy truck, marine, rail and train, packaging, food and beverage, wind energy, and general industrial markets. The company distributes its products via a dedicated direct sales force and a robust network of industrial and aerospace distributors. Established in 1919, RBC Bearings Incorporated maintains its corporate headquarters in Oxford, Connecticut.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
- CEO
- Michael J. Hartnett