Why we don't show a single “fair value” for RBC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($183.87) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$506.53 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +49.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.0% | $108.05 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.0% | $143.52 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.0% | $183.87 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $144.77 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$506.53
Market-Implied Growth
+49.9%/yr
vs +21.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$143.52
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RBC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $242.7M · 0.03B shares · net debt $818.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$143.52
-71.7% vs $506.53
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $506.53; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $175 | $187 | $201 | $217 | $236 |
| 10.0% | $149 | $158 | $168 | $180 | $193 |
| 11.0% | $129 | $136 | $144 | $152 | $162 |
| 12.0% | $113 | $118 | $124 | $131 | $138 |
| 13.0% | $99.21 | $104 | $108 | $114 | $119 |
