TGM's two-stage DCF values Phillips 66 (PSX) between $203.76 and $429.69 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $296.48. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$206.77 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.7%/yr | 8.6% | $203.76 |
| Base case | 17.7%/yr | 7.6% | $296.48 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.6% | $429.69 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $213.95 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$206.77
Market-Implied Growth
+10.4%/yr
vs +19.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$203.76 – $429.69
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PSX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.7B · 0.40B shares · net debt $20.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$296.48
+43.4% vs $206.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $206.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $403 | $460 | $535 | $640 | $793 |
| 6.6% | $309 | $344 | $387 | $441 | $514 |
| 7.6% | $246 | $269 | $296 | $330 | $371 |
| 8.6% | $201 | $217 | $236 | $258 | $284 |
| 9.6% | $168 | $179 | $193 | $208 | $226 |
