TGM's two-stage DCF values Phillips 66 (PSX) between $164.92 and $367.32 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $243.19. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$258.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.6%/yr | 8.6% | $164.92 |
| Base case | 13.6%/yr | 7.6% | $243.19 |
| Optimistic | 16.6%/yr | 6.6% | $367.32 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $200.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$258.74
Market-Implied Growth
+14.9%/yr
vs +13.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$164.92 – $367.32
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PSX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.7B · 0.40B shares · net debt $20.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$243.19
-6.0% vs $258.74
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $258.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $332 | $380 | $442 | $529 | $657 |
| 6.6% | $254 | $283 | $318 | $364 | $424 |
| 7.6% | $201 | $220 | $243 | $271 | $305 |
| 8.6% | $164 | $177 | $193 | $211 | $233 |
| 9.6% | $136 | $145 | $157 | $170 | $185 |
