Phillips 66 (PSX) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Phillips 66 (PSX)'s fair value in a range of $136.69 – $223.74 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $179.00 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $179.00, the market is pricing in roughly +7.8%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -16.3%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$179.00
Fair-Value Range
$136.69 – $223.74
Market-Implied Growth
+7.8%/yr
vs -16.3% 5Y actual
PSX DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $4.6B · 0.40B shares · net debt $20.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$136.69
-23.6% vs $179.00
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $179.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $182 | $194 | $208 | $225 | $246 |
| 9.0% | $149 | $157 | $167 | $178 | $191 |
| 10.0% | $124 | $130 | $137 | $144 | $153 |
| 11.0% | $105 | $109 | $114 | $119 | $125 |
| 12.0% | $88.88 | $92.07 | $95.60 | $99.51 | $104 |
About Phillips 66
Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics. Its comprehensive business model is structured across four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing & Specialties (M&S). The Midstream division manages the vital infrastructure for transporting and processing various energy commodities. This includes moving crude oil and other feedstocks, delivering refined petroleum products to market, offering terminaling and storage solutions, and handling natural gas liquids (NGLs) through processes like transportation, storage, fractionation, export, and marketing. It also provides fee-based processing services and oversees the gathering, processing, transportation, and marketing of natural gas. The Chemicals segment is dedicated to the production and distribution of a broad spectrum of chemical products. This encompasses olefins like ethylene, aromatics and styrenics such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene, alongside various specialty chemicals. These specialty products include organosulfur compounds, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals utilized in drilling and mining operations. Through its Refining segment, Phillips 66 transforms crude oil and other feedstocks into essential petroleum products. These include different grades of gasoline, distillates, aviation fuels, and renewable fuels, processed at its network of 12 refineries located in the United States and Europe. The Marketing & Specialties (M&S) segment focuses on the procurement, resale, and marketing of refined petroleum products like gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels, primarily serving markets in the United States and Europe. This segment also manufactures and distributes specialized products, including base oils and lubricants. Phillips 66, founded in 1875, is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- CEO
- Mark E. Lashier