TGM's two-stage DCF values PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) between $96.28 and $162.14 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $123.62. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$132.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.1%/yr | 11.0% | $96.28 |
| Base case | 4.1%/yr | 10.0% | $123.62 |
| Optimistic | 7.1%/yr | 9.0% | $162.14 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $156.53 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$132.90
Market-Implied Growth
+5.9%/yr
vs +2.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$96.28 – $162.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PHM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.19B shares · net debt $287.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$123.62
-7.0% vs $132.90
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $132.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $148 | $158 | $170 | $184 | $201 |
| 9.0% | $128 | $135 | $143 | $153 | $164 |
| 10.0% | $112 | $118 | $124 | $131 | $139 |
| 11.0% | $100 | $104 | $109 | $114 | $120 |
| 12.0% | $90.17 | $93.43 | $97.03 | $101 | $105 |
