PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) between $112.77 and $189.52 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $144.69. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$125.62 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.0%/yr | 11.1% | $112.77 |
| Base case | 8.0%/yr | 10.1% | $144.69 |
| Optimistic | 11.0%/yr | 9.1% | $189.52 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $156.44 | |
Current Price
$125.62
Market-Implied Growth
+4.5%/yr
vs -0.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$112.77 – $189.52
model output — not a price target
PHM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PHM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.19B shares · net debt $287.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$173.45
+38.1% vs $125.62
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $125.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $217 | $229 | $243 | $259 | $279 |
| 9.1% | $186 | $194 | $203 | $213 | $226 |
| 10.1% | $161 | $167 | $173 | $181 | $189 |
| 11.1% | $142 | $147 | $151 | $156 | $162 |
| 12.1% | $127 | $130 | $134 | $137 | $142 |
About PulteGroup, Inc.
PulteGroup, Inc. operates as a leading American homebuilder, primarily focusing on acquiring and developing land for residential purposes, followed by the construction of various types of homes across the United States. Its diverse portfolio encompasses a range of housing designs, including single-family detached residences, townhouses, condominiums, and duplexes, marketed under well-known brand names such as Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, American West, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods. As of December 31, 2021, PulteGroup managed an extensive land inventory totaling 228,296 lots, with 109,078 parcels owned outright and an additional 119,218 secured through land option agreements. Beyond its core construction activities, the company provides comprehensive financial services to its homebuyers, including originating mortgage loans and subsequently selling their servicing rights, as well as offering essential title insurance, examination, and closing services. Established in 1950, the company, initially known as Pulte Homes, Inc., adopted its current name, PulteGroup, Inc., in March 2010 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- CEO
- Ryan R. Marshall