TGM's two-stage DCF values PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) between $95.16 and $159.59 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $121.96. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$122.03 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.1%/yr | 11.1% | $95.16 |
| Base case | 4.1%/yr | 10.1% | $121.96 |
| Optimistic | 7.1%/yr | 9.1% | $159.59 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $147.81 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$122.03
Market-Implied Growth
+4.1%/yr
vs +2.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$95.16 – $159.59
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PHM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.19B shares · net debt $287.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$121.96
-0.1% vs $122.03
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $122.03; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $146 | $155 | $167 | $180 | $197 |
| 9.1% | $126 | $133 | $141 | $150 | $161 |
| 10.1% | $111 | $116 | $122 | $129 | $136 |
| 11.1% | $98.95 | $103 | $107 | $112 | $118 |
| 12.1% | $89.29 | $92.48 | $95.99 | $99.88 | $104 |
