TGM's two-stage DCF values ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) between $29.27 and $45.31 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $35.11. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$86.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $29.27 |
| Base case | 2.1%/yr | 11.5% | $35.11 |
| Optimistic | 5.1%/yr | 10.5% | $45.31 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $21.14 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$86.81
Market-Implied Growth
+24.6%/yr
vs +2.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$29.27 – $45.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ON (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.39B shares · net debt $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$35.11
-59.6% vs $86.81
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $86.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $41.17 | $43.38 | $45.90 | $48.81 | $52.20 |
| 10.5% | $36.26 | $37.95 | $39.83 | $41.97 | $44.40 |
| 11.5% | $32.34 | $33.66 | $35.11 | $36.73 | $38.56 |
| 12.5% | $29.14 | $30.18 | $31.33 | $32.60 | $34.01 |
| 13.5% | $26.46 | $27.31 | $28.24 | $29.25 | $30.36 |
