TGM's two-stage DCF values ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) between $29.26 and $46.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $36.01. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$71.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +19.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $29.26 |
| Base case | 2.7%/yr | 11.5% | $36.01 |
| Optimistic | 5.7%/yr | 10.5% | $46.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $21.36 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$71.95
Market-Implied Growth
+19.7%/yr
vs +2.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$29.26 – $46.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ON (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.39B shares · net debt $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$36.01
-50.0% vs $71.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $71.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $42.24 | $44.51 | $47.11 | $50.10 | $53.59 |
| 10.5% | $37.20 | $38.93 | $40.87 | $43.06 | $45.57 |
| 11.5% | $33.17 | $34.51 | $36.01 | $37.68 | $39.55 |
| 12.5% | $29.87 | $30.94 | $32.13 | $33.43 | $34.88 |
| 13.5% | $27.12 | $28.00 | $28.95 | $29.99 | $31.13 |
