TGM's two-stage DCF values HubSpot, Inc. (HUBS) between $169.33 and $262.25 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $212.09. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$204.89 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +17.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.2% | $169.33 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.2% | $212.09 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.2% | $262.25 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $116.73 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$204.89
Market-Implied Growth
+17.0%/yr
vs +27.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$169.33 – $262.25
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HUBS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $405.7M · 0.05B shares · net cash $882.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$212.09
+3.5% vs $204.89
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $204.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $252 | $268 | $287 | $309 | $337 |
| 9.2% | $219 | $230 | $244 | $259 | $278 |
| 10.2% | $193 | $202 | $212 | $223 | $236 |
| 11.2% | $173 | $180 | $188 | $196 | $206 |
| 12.2% | $157 | $163 | $168 | $175 | $182 |
