TGM's two-stage DCF values HubSpot, Inc. (HUBS) between $175.20 and $274.77 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $220.71. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$240.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.9% | $175.20 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.9% | $220.71 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.9% | $274.77 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $117.13 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$240.13
Market-Implied Growth
+20.4%/yr
vs +26.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$175.20 – $274.77
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HUBS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $405.7M · 0.05B shares · net cash $882.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$220.71
-8.1% vs $240.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $240.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $264 | $282 | $303 | $329 | $360 |
| 8.9% | $228 | $241 | $255 | $273 | $293 |
| 9.9% | $200 | $210 | $221 | $233 | $247 |
| 10.9% | $179 | $186 | $194 | $204 | $214 |
| 11.9% | $162 | $168 | $174 | $181 | $189 |
