TGM's two-stage DCF values Halliburton Company (HAL) between $40.35 and $82.29 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $56.71. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$31.89 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.2%/yr | 8.8% | $40.35 |
| Base case | 11.2%/yr | 7.8% | $56.71 |
| Optimistic | 14.2%/yr | 6.8% | $82.29 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $70.19 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$31.89
Market-Implied Growth
-0.7%/yr
vs +11.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$40.35 – $82.29
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HAL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.9B · 0.84B shares · net debt $5.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$56.71
+77.8% vs $31.89
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $31.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $74.72 | $84.09 | $96.29 | $113 | $137 |
| 6.8% | $58.93 | $64.74 | $71.88 | $80.90 | $92.64 |
| 7.8% | $48.18 | $52.08 | $56.71 | $62.29 | $69.17 |
| 8.8% | $40.39 | $43.16 | $46.37 | $50.13 | $54.58 |
| 9.8% | $34.50 | $36.55 | $38.88 | $41.55 | $44.64 |
