TGM's two-stage DCF values Halliburton Company (HAL) between $38.88 and $78.20 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $54.34. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$32.85 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.2%/yr | 9.0% | $38.88 |
| Base case | 11.2%/yr | 8.0% | $54.34 |
| Optimistic | 14.2%/yr | 7.0% | $78.20 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $58.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$32.85
Market-Implied Growth
+0.7%/yr
vs +11.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$38.88 – $78.20
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HAL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.9B · 0.84B shares · net debt $5.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$54.34
+65.4% vs $32.85
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $32.85; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $71.00 | $79.44 | $90.29 | $105 | $125 |
| 7.0% | $56.47 | $61.80 | $68.30 | $76.43 | $86.87 |
| 8.0% | $46.43 | $50.06 | $54.34 | $59.47 | $65.74 |
| 9.0% | $39.09 | $41.69 | $44.69 | $48.18 | $52.31 |
| 10.0% | $33.49 | $35.43 | $37.63 | $40.13 | $43.03 |
