TGM's two-stage DCF values Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) between $53.84 and $87.98 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $69.28. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$152.37 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +39.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.5% | $53.84 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.5% | $69.28 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.5% | $87.98 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $76.96 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$152.37
Market-Implied Growth
+39.5%/yr
vs +21.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$53.84 – $87.98
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FTNT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.8B · 0.73B shares · net cash $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$69.28
-54.5% vs $152.37
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $152.37; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $84.31 | $90.78 | $98.54 | $108 | $120 |
| 8.5% | $71.64 | $76.17 | $81.45 | $87.68 | $95.15 |
| 9.5% | $62.18 | $65.50 | $69.28 | $73.64 | $78.72 |
| 10.5% | $54.86 | $57.37 | $60.19 | $63.38 | $67.03 |
| 11.5% | $49.03 | $50.98 | $53.15 | $55.57 | $58.29 |
