TGM's two-stage DCF values Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) between $54.47 and $89.42 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $70.24. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$157.47 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +40.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.4% | $54.47 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.4% | $70.24 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.4% | $89.42 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $77.02 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$157.47
Market-Implied Growth
+40.0%/yr
vs +23.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$54.47 – $89.42
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FTNT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.8B · 0.73B shares · net cash $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$70.24
-55.4% vs $157.47
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $157.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $85.69 | $92.41 | $100 | $110 | $123 |
| 8.4% | $72.64 | $77.31 | $82.78 | $89.24 | $97.02 |
| 9.4% | $62.93 | $66.34 | $70.24 | $74.74 | $80.00 |
| 10.4% | $55.44 | $58.01 | $60.91 | $64.19 | $67.95 |
| 11.4% | $49.49 | $51.48 | $53.70 | $56.19 | $58.98 |
