TGM's two-stage DCF values Fastenal Company (FAST) between $14.70 and $28.04 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $19.88. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$49.38 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.8%/yr | 8.7% | $14.70 |
| Base case | 5.8%/yr | 7.7% | $19.88 |
| Optimistic | 8.8%/yr | 6.7% | $28.04 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $27.74 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$49.38
Market-Implied Growth
+28.4%/yr
vs +2.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$14.70 – $28.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FAST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $998.7M · 1.15B shares · net cash $151.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$19.88
-59.7% vs $49.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $49.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $25.54 | $28.52 | $32.44 | $37.80 | $45.59 |
| 6.7% | $20.57 | $22.40 | $24.66 | $27.54 | $31.31 |
| 7.7% | $17.20 | $18.43 | $19.88 | $21.65 | $23.83 |
| 8.7% | $14.78 | $15.64 | $16.65 | $17.83 | $19.23 |
| 9.7% | $12.95 | $13.59 | $14.31 | $15.15 | $16.12 |
