Fastenal Company (FAST) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Fastenal Company (FAST)'s fair value in a range of $14.50 – $28.18 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $46.58 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $46.58, the market is pricing in roughly +21.0%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +3.4%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$46.58
Fair-Value Range
$14.50 – $28.18
Market-Implied Growth
+21.0%/yr
vs +3.4% 5Y actual
FAST DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.0B · 1.15B shares · net cash $151.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$14.50
-68.9% vs $46.58
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $46.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $17.99 | $18.90 | $19.99 | $21.28 | $22.87 |
| 9.0% | $15.47 | $16.10 | $16.82 | $17.66 | $18.66 |
| 10.0% | $13.55 | $14.00 | $14.50 | $15.08 | $15.74 |
| 11.0% | $12.04 | $12.37 | $12.73 | $13.14 | $13.61 |
| 12.0% | $10.83 | $11.07 | $11.34 | $11.64 | $11.98 |
About Fastenal Company
Fastenal Company, along with its associated entities, operates as a global wholesale supplier of industrial and construction materials, with significant operations throughout North America, including the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and other international markets. Branded as Fastenal, the company offers a comprehensive range of fasteners, such as threaded bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and washers, which are vital for manufacturing processes, building developments, and equipment servicing. Beyond fasteners, its product catalog extends to diverse hardware and miscellaneous items like pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, and rivets, along with their related accessories. Fastenal serves a wide array of clients, including original equipment manufacturers, maintenance, repair, and operations departments within the manufacturing sector, and various non-residential construction contractors spanning general, electrical, plumbing, sheet metal, and road construction. Its customer base further encompasses agricultural businesses, transportation services (trucking, railroads), mining operations, educational institutions, retail establishments, the oil and gas exploration, production, and refinement industries, and governmental bodies at federal, state, and local levels. The company distributes its offerings through an extensive network of 3,209 in-market facilities and 15 major distribution centers. Established in 1967, Fastenal Company's corporate headquarters are located in Winona, Minnesota.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial - Distribution
- CEO
- Daniel L. Florness