Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ETN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($188.66) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$404.07 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.8%/yr | 11.0% | $101.76 |
| Base case | 11.8%/yr | 10.0% | $137.84 |
| Optimistic | 14.8%/yr | 9.0% | $188.66 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $184.38 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$404.07
Market-Implied Growth
+37.4%/yr
vs +13.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$137.84
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ETN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.2B · 0.39B shares · net debt $9.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$137.84
-65.9% vs $404.07
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $404.07; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $171 | $185 | $201 | $220 | $244 |
| 9.0% | $143 | $153 | $164 | $178 | $193 |
| 10.0% | $122 | $130 | $138 | $147 | $158 |
| 11.0% | $106 | $111 | $118 | $125 | $133 |
| 12.0% | $92.30 | $96.73 | $102 | $107 | $113 |
