Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ETN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($193.10) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$422.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +38.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.9%/yr | 10.9% | $103.85 |
| Base case | 11.9%/yr | 9.9% | $140.83 |
| Optimistic | 14.9%/yr | 8.9% | $193.10 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $182.17 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$422.13
Market-Implied Growth
+38.2%/yr
vs +14.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$140.83
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ETN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.2B · 0.39B shares · net debt $9.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$140.83
-66.6% vs $422.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $422.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $175 | $189 | $206 | $226 | $251 |
| 8.9% | $146 | $157 | $168 | $182 | $198 |
| 9.9% | $125 | $132 | $141 | $151 | $162 |
| 10.9% | $108 | $113 | $120 | $127 | $135 |
| 11.9% | $93.97 | $98.53 | $104 | $109 | $115 |
