TGM's two-stage DCF values EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) between $463.37 and $775.75 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $594.75. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$812.65 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.2%/yr | 10.7% | $463.37 |
| Base case | 17.2%/yr | 9.7% | $594.75 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.7% | $775.75 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $336.62 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$812.65
Market-Implied Growth
+25.5%/yr
vs +19.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$463.37 – $775.75
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EME (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.0B · 0.04B shares · net cash $641.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$594.75
-26.8% vs $812.65
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $812.65; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $721 | $774 | $837 | $914 | $1009 |
| 8.7% | $615 | $653 | $696 | $747 | $808 |
| 9.7% | $535 | $563 | $595 | $631 | $673 |
| 10.7% | $474 | $495 | $518 | $545 | $575 |
| 11.7% | $424 | $440 | $459 | $479 | $502 |
