TGM's two-stage DCF values EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) between $477.50 and $792.23 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $609.88. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$749.70 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.2%/yr | 10.7% | $477.50 |
| Base case | 17.2%/yr | 9.7% | $609.88 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.7% | $792.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $321.54 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$749.70
Market-Implied Growth
+22.8%/yr
vs +19.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$477.50 – $792.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EME (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.0B · 0.04B shares · net cash $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$609.88
-18.7% vs $749.70
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $749.70; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $737 | $790 | $854 | $931 | $1027 |
| 8.7% | $630 | $668 | $712 | $764 | $825 |
| 9.7% | $550 | $578 | $610 | $646 | $689 |
| 10.7% | $488 | $509 | $533 | $560 | $590 |
| 11.7% | $438 | $454 | $473 | $493 | $516 |
