Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DELL
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($70.85) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$440.54 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +54.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.2%/yr | 12.0% | $32.45 |
| Base case | 5.2%/yr | 11.0% | $48.66 |
| Optimistic | 8.2%/yr | 10.0% | $70.85 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $107.13 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$440.54
Market-Implied Growth
+54.2%/yr
vs +3.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$48.66
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DELL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.9B · 0.66B shares · net debt $20.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$48.66
-89.0% vs $440.54
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $440.54; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $62.26 | $67.42 | $73.36 | $80.29 | $88.47 |
| 10.0% | $51.14 | $55.00 | $59.36 | $64.34 | $70.08 |
| 11.0% | $42.38 | $45.35 | $48.66 | $52.39 | $56.60 |
| 12.0% | $35.30 | $37.64 | $40.23 | $43.09 | $46.29 |
| 13.0% | $29.45 | $31.34 | $33.40 | $35.67 | $38.16 |
