Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DELL
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($80.52) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$399.49 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +51.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.1%/yr | 11.9% | $38.11 |
| Base case | 7.1%/yr | 10.9% | $55.99 |
| Optimistic | 10.1%/yr | 9.9% | $80.52 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $114.30 | |
Current Price
$399.49
Market-Implied Growth
+51.1%/yr
vs +7.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$55.99
model output — not a price target
DELL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DELL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.9B · 0.66B shares · net debt $20.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$69.05
-82.7% vs $399.49
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $399.49; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $91.56 | $96.85 | $103 | $110 | $119 |
| 9.9% | $75.67 | $79.42 | $83.68 | $88.55 | $94.19 |
| 10.9% | $63.24 | $65.99 | $69.05 | $72.51 | $76.43 |
| 11.9% | $53.27 | $55.33 | $57.60 | $60.13 | $62.96 |
| 12.9% | $45.11 | $46.68 | $48.40 | $50.30 | $52.40 |
About Dell Technologies Inc.
Dell Technologies Inc. is a worldwide technology leader that designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and provides support for a broad spectrum of information technology (IT) solutions, products, and services. The company's business activities are structured into three primary segments: the Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), the Client Solutions Group (CSG), and VMware. The ISG division focuses on delivering enterprise-grade offerings, including both traditional and next-generation storage solutions, alongside various server configurations such as rack, blade, tower, and hyperscale models. This segment also provides networking products and related services aimed at helping corporate clients modernize their IT infrastructure, enrich end-user experiences, and accelerate critical business applications and processes. Complementary software, peripherals, and extensive support services—encompassing deployment, configuration, and extended warranties—are also part of its portfolio. The CSG segment addresses end-user computing requirements by offering personal computers like desktops, workstations, and notebooks, as well as displays and projectors. It further includes proprietary and third-party software, peripheral devices, and a full suite of support, installation, setup, and extended warranty services. The VMware division specializes in assisting customers with managing intricate IT landscapes, particularly concerning hybrid and multi-cloud environments, modern applications, network infrastructure, security protocols, and digital workspaces. Its services enable efficient resource management across private, multi-cloud, and multi-device setups. Furthermore, Dell Technologies offers information security solutions and cloud software, including Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS), which empower customers to migrate, operate, and manage mission-critical applications within cloud-based IT environments. Founded in 1984, the company was initially known as Denali Holding Inc. before officially changing its name to Dell Technologies Inc. in August 2016. Its global headquarters are situated in Round Rock, Texas.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Computer Hardware
- CEO
- Michael Saul Dell