Why we don't show a single “fair value” for COP
Even the conservative scenario ($285.42) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$120.26 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -8.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $285.42 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $396.03 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $549.45 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $467.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$120.26
Market-Implied Growth
-8.2%/yr
vs +20.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$396.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for COP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $12.7B · 1.22B shares · net debt $16.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$396.03
+229.3% vs $120.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $120.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $525 | $595 | $688 | $818 | $1013 |
| 6.5% | $411 | $453 | $505 | $572 | $662 |
| 7.5% | $336 | $363 | $396 | $436 | $487 |
| 8.5% | $282 | $301 | $323 | $350 | $382 |
| 9.5% | $242 | $256 | $272 | $290 | $312 |
