ConocoPhillips (COP) DCF Valuation
Two independent models estimate ConocoPhillips's fair value between $160.01 (conservative case) and $478.50 (analyst consensus).
What would today's price require?
$120.37 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.4% a year for the next decade — slower than the company has actually grown.
Current Price
$120.37
Fair-Value Range
$160.01 – $478.50
Market-Implied Growth
+1.4%/yr
vs +104.6% 5Y actual
COP DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $12.9B · 1.22B shares · net debt $16.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$160.01
+32.9% vs $120.37
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $120.37; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $202 | $213 | $226 | $242 | $261 |
| 9.0% | $172 | $179 | $188 | $198 | $210 |
| 10.0% | $149 | $154 | $160 | $167 | $175 |
| 11.0% | $130 | $134 | $139 | $144 | $149 |
| 12.0% | $116 | $119 | $122 | $125 | $130 |
About ConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its primary operations are centered on both conventional and tight oil formations, shale gas, heavy crude, LNG developments, and oil sands projects. The company's extensive portfolio includes unconventional resources located in North America; established conventional assets spanning North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; numerous LNG ventures; oil sands properties within Canada; and a significant inventory of potential conventional and unconventional exploration opportunities. ConocoPhillips was established in 1917 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- CEO
- Ryan Lance