ConocoPhillips (COP) DCF Valuation

Transparent DCF models put ConocoPhillips (COP)'s fair value in a range of $160.01 – $478.50 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $120.37 sits below that range — by these conservative assumptions it screens as potentially undervalued.

Reverse DCF: at today's $120.37, the market is pricing in roughly +1.4%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +104.6%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.

COP DCF Fair Value Calculator

Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.