Why we don't show a single “fair value” for COP
Even the conservative scenario ($270.17) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$135.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.7%/yr | 8.5% | $270.17 |
| Base case | 16.7%/yr | 7.5% | $375.04 |
| Optimistic |
| 19.7%/yr |
| 6.5% |
| $542.61 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $456.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$135.04
Market-Implied Growth
-5.8%/yr
vs +16.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$375.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for COP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $12.7B · 1.22B shares · net debt $16.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$375.04
+177.7% vs $135.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $135.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $497 | $563 | $651 | $773 | $958 |
| 6.5% | $389 | $429 | $478 | $542 | $626 |
| 7.5% | $318 | $344 | $375 | $413 | $461 |
| 8.5% | $267 | $285 | $306 | $331 | $361 |
| 9.5% | $229 | $242 | $258 | $275 | $296 |
