Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CNC
Even the conservative scenario ($157.49) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$63.41 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -16.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.5%/yr | 10.5% | $157.49 |
| Base case | 11.5%/yr | 9.5% | $204.22 |
| Optimistic | 14.5%/yr | 8.5% | $271.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $119.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$63.41
Market-Implied Growth
-16.2%/yr
vs +11.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$204.22
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CNC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.8B · 0.49B shares · net debt $274.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$204.22
+222.1% vs $63.41
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $63.41; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $249 | $268 | $291 | $319 | $353 |
| 8.5% | $211 | $225 | $240 | $259 | $281 |
| 9.5% | $183 | $193 | $204 | $217 | $232 |
| 10.5% | $162 | $169 | $177 | $187 | $198 |
| 11.5% | $144 | $150 | $156 | $164 | $172 |
