Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CNC
Even the conservative scenario ($148.72) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$64.58 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -15.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.4%/yr | 10.6% | $148.72 |
| Base case | 10.4%/yr | 9.6% | $192.40 |
| Optimistic | 13.4%/yr | 8.6% | $254.80 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $113.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$64.58
Market-Implied Growth
-15.5%/yr
vs -1.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$192.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CNC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.8B · 0.49B shares · net debt $274.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$192.40
+197.9% vs $64.58
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $64.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $233 | $251 | $272 | $297 | $329 |
| 8.6% | $199 | $211 | $226 | $242 | $263 |
| 9.6% | $173 | $182 | $192 | $204 | $218 |
| 10.6% | $153 | $160 | $168 | $176 | $186 |
| 11.6% | $137 | $142 | $148 | $155 | $162 |
