TGM's two-stage DCF values C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) between $75.30 and $133.08 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $95.46. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$151.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.7% | $75.30 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.7% | $95.46 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.7% | $133.08 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $57.12 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$151.13
Market-Implied Growth
+12.2%/yr
vs +0.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$75.30 – $133.08
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHRW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $771.4M · 0.12B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$95.46
-36.8% vs $151.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $151.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $120 | $132 | $146 | $164 | $187 |
| 7.7% | $98.95 | $107 | $116 | $127 | $141 |
| 8.7% | $83.71 | $89.15 | $95.46 | $103 | $112 |
| 9.7% | $72.19 | $76.21 | $80.79 | $86.04 | $92.13 |
| 10.7% | $63.17 | $66.25 | $69.69 | $73.58 | $78.00 |
