TGM's two-stage DCF values C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) between $74.14 and $130.34 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $93.78. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$153.62 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.8% | $74.14 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.8% | $93.78 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.8% | $130.34 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $51.24 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$153.62
Market-Implied Growth
+13.0%/yr
vs +0.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$74.14 – $130.34
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHRW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $771.4M · 0.12B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$93.78
-39.0% vs $153.62
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $153.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $118 | $129 | $142 | $159 | $181 |
| 7.8% | $97.21 | $105 | $113 | $124 | $137 |
| 8.8% | $82.42 | $87.69 | $93.78 | $101 | $109 |
| 9.8% | $71.19 | $75.10 | $79.54 | $84.63 | $90.51 |
| 10.8% | $62.38 | $65.38 | $68.73 | $72.51 | $76.80 |
