C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) between $75.30 and $133.08 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $95.46. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$185.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +17.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.7% | $75.30 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.7% | $95.46 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.7% | $133.08 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $57.63 | |
Current Price
$185.04
Market-Implied Growth
+17.0%/yr
vs -1.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$75.30 – $133.08
model output — not a price target
CHRW DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHRW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $771.4M · 0.12B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$93.68
-49.4% vs $185.04
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $185.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $122 | $132 | $143 | $157 | $176 |
| 7.7% | $101 | $107 | $114 | $122 | $132 |
| 8.7% | $85.25 | $89.15 | $93.68 | $99.01 | $105 |
| 9.7% | $73.47 | $76.21 | $79.34 | $82.93 | $87.11 |
| 10.7% | $64.25 | $66.25 | $68.49 | $71.02 | $73.90 |
About C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. serves as a global provider of diverse freight transportation and logistics solutions, assisting companies across numerous industries. The organization's business operations are segmented into two key areas: North American Surface Transportation and Global Forwarding. Its comprehensive range of services spans various shipping modalities. This includes brokerage for both full truckload (FTL) and less-than-truckload (LTL) freight, managing everything from single-pallet shipments to full container loads. C.H. Robinson also coordinates intermodal transport, which involves moving goods in containers or trailers through a combination of truck and rail networks, in addition to acting as a non-vessel operating common carrier (NVOCC) for ocean freight and arranging air cargo shipments. The company consistently provides end-to-end door-to-door delivery services. Beyond direct transportation, C.H. Robinson offers specialized logistics services like customs brokerage, managed transportation solutions (TMS), warehousing, and handling small parcel deliveries. These services are supported by an extensive network of approximately 85,000 contracted transportation partners, encompassing motor carriers, railroads, and both air and ocean carriers. Furthermore, C.H. Robinson operates a substantial fresh produce division under the "Robinson Fresh" brand. This unit focuses on the sourcing, sale, and marketing of fresh fruits, vegetables, and other perishable items. These products reach a wide customer base, including grocery retailers, restaurants, produce wholesalers, and foodservice distributors, leveraging a network of independent growers and suppliers. Founded in 1905, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- CEO
- David Bozeman