Why we don't show a single “fair value” for APP
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($116.42) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$343.85 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +53.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $74.40 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $94.23 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $116.42 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $124.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$343.85
Market-Implied Growth
+53.9%/yr
vs +25.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$94.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.34B shares · net debt $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$94.23
-72.6% vs $343.85
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $343.85; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $111 | $118 | $125 | $133 | $143 |
| 10.5% | $97.48 | $102 | $108 | $114 | $121 |
| 11.5% | $86.38 | $90.10 | $94.23 | $98.84 | $104 |
| 12.5% | $77.34 | $80.30 | $83.56 | $87.14 | $91.12 |
| 13.5% | $69.85 | $72.25 | $74.86 | $77.72 | $80.85 |
