AppLovin Corporation (APP) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for APP
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($116.42) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $74.40 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $94.23 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $116.42 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $126.45 | |
Current Price
$469.39
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$94.23
model output — not a price target
APP DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.34B shares · net debt $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$156.00
-66.8% vs $469.39
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $469.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $195 | $204 | $214 | $226 | $240 |
| 10.5% | $167 | $174 | $181 | $190 | $199 |
| 11.5% | $146 | $151 | $156 | $162 | $169 |
| 12.5% | $128 | $132 | $136 | $140 | $145 |
| 13.5% | $114 | $117 | $120 | $123 | $127 |
About AppLovin Corporation
AppLovin Corporation provides a specialized software platform focused on empowering mobile application developers to enhance the marketing and revenue generation of their products. With operations spanning the United States and international markets, the company assists mobile app developers worldwide. Among its core software offerings is AppDiscovery, a marketing solution that intelligently connects advertiser demand with publisher supply through an auction-based model. Another key product is Adjust, an analytics platform that enables marketers to scale their mobile apps by offering capabilities for performance measurement, campaign optimization, and user data protection. Additionally, MAX is an in-app bidding software engineered to maximize the value derived from an app's advertising inventory by facilitating real-time competitive auctions. Its client base is broad, serving advertisers, publishers, internet platforms, and other stakeholders. Founded in 2011, the enterprise maintains its headquarters in Palo Alto, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- CEO
- Adam Arash Foroughi