Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)'s fair value in a range of $118.21 – $121.30 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $129.10 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $129.10, the market is pricing in roughly +5.9%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +54.5%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$129.10
Fair-Value Range
$118.21 – $121.30
Market-Implied Growth
+5.9%/yr
vs +54.5% 5Y actual
ABNB DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $4.1B · 0.59B shares · net cash $4.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$121.30
-6.0% vs $129.10
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $129.10; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $149 | $156 | $165 | $175 | $187 |
| 9.0% | $129 | $134 | $140 | $146 | $154 |
| 10.0% | $114 | $117 | $121 | $126 | $131 |
| 11.0% | $102 | $104 | $107 | $111 | $114 |
| 12.0% | $92.25 | $94.19 | $96.34 | $98.72 | $101 |
About Airbnb, Inc.
Airbnb, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, manages a global digital marketplace. This platform seamlessly connects individuals, known as hosts, who wish to offer a variety of accommodations and unique local experiences, with guests seeking such services worldwide. Users can easily book anything from private rooms and primary residences to vacation homes through its online and mobile channels. Originally established as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. in 2007, the company officially rebranded to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Its corporate headquarters are situated in San Francisco, California.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Services
- CEO
- Brian Chesky