TGM's two-stage DCF values Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) between $150.69 and $241.80 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $192.23. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$141.10 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.8% | $150.69 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.8% | $192.23 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.8% | $241.80 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $146.92 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$141.10
Market-Implied Growth
+9.8%/yr
vs +29.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$150.69 – $241.80
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ABNB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.2B · 0.59B shares · net cash $4.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$192.23
+36.2% vs $141.10
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $141.10; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $232 | $248 | $268 | $292 | $321 |
| 8.8% | $199 | $210 | $224 | $240 | $259 |
| 9.8% | $174 | $182 | $192 | $204 | $217 |
| 10.8% | $154 | $161 | $168 | $177 | $186 |
| 11.8% | $138 | $143 | $149 | $156 | $163 |
